CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-05-16T16:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-05-16T16:36ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46214/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1, and NE in STEREO A COR2. The source is observed as significant dimming and an EUV wave centered around N30W13, and field line movement, in SDO AIA 171/193 starting around 2026-05-16T15:18Z, associated with an M1.9 flare peaking at 2026-05-16T16:12Z from AR 14436 (N22W17).
CME Arrival Time: -----
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: -----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-05-19T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/46217/1 Model Inputs: 2026-05-16T16:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=9.0, Lat.=37.0, Speed=1201.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2026-05-16T19:27Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-05-19T00:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=3 (kp)180=5 Other Location(s) Impact: Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gifLead Time: 53.63 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-05-16T18:22Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy